By Eric Fehrnstrom
December 17, 2008
Let's concede that the most remarkable thing about the 2008 presidential race is the election of our first African-American president, accomplished without social upheaval, when not too long ago blacks couldn't sit at the front of the bus in the South or drink from the same water fountain as whites. But the next most startling fact is this: The number of people who identify themselves as Republicans has gone from 36 percent in 2004 to 28 percent in 2008. This decline in market share translated into 6.3 million fewer Republican voters compared with the Bush-Kerry contest in 2004.
More than anything else, this explains the election of Barack Obama. The idea that Obama won by vastly increasing turnout is a myth.
Figuring out who are the vanishing Republican voters and why they are leaving is the most important challenge facing the party. Is it Bush fatigue? Anti-war sentiment? Moderates dissatisfied with the party's socially conservative positions?
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