Friday, November 21, 2008
Somerville, Medford to confirm locations of Green Line extension terminus, support facility
From Tufts Daily;
Transportation officials analyzed key features of the T’s Green Line extension project during a public meeting last week, but a recommendation on the line’s terminus likely won’t come until January.
At a Green Line Extension Project Advisory Group meeting last Wednesday, Massachusetts Executive Office of Transportation (EOT) planning officials said that they had selected a possible location for an equipment-support facility and two possible configurations of an extension section that would run near Union Square in Somerville. They also presented a new analysis of the extension’s projected ridership.
The questions of whether to build a new track near Union Square and where in Somerville to locate the support facility remain two of the biggest debates currently facing state transportation planners.
In Medford, transportation officials are still focusing on where the Green Line will end, with two terminus sites along Boston Avenue under consideration. The first possibility is located along the commuter rail tracks by Tufts’ Curtis Hall, the building that houses Brown and Brew, and the second at the intersection of the Mystic Valley Parkway (Route 16) and Boston Avenue.
Full article at Tufts Daily
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Mitt Romney:Let Detroit Go Bankrupt
Op-Ed Contributor
By MITT ROMNEY
Published: November 18, 2008
IF General Motors, Ford and Chrysler get the bailout that their chief executives asked for yesterday, you can kiss the American automotive industry goodbye. It won’t go overnight, but its demise will be virtually guaranteed.
Without that bailout, Detroit will need to drastically restructure itself. With it, the automakers will stay the course — the suicidal course of declining market shares, insurmountable labor and retiree burdens, technology atrophy, product inferiority and never-ending job losses. Detroit needs a turnaround, not a check.
Full article
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Karl Rove:2010 favors Republicans
Since 1966, the incumbent party has lost an average of 63 state senate and 262 state house seats, and six governorships, in a president's first midterm election. That 2010 is likely to see Republicans begin rebounding just before redistricting is one silver lining in an otherwise dismal year for the GOP.
In politics, good years follow bad years. Republicans and Democrats have experienced both during the past 15 years. A GOP comeback, while certainly possible, won't be self-executing and automatic. It will require Republicans to be skillful at both defense (opposing Mr. Obama on some issues) and offense (creating a compelling agenda that resonates with voters). And it will require leaders to emerge who give the right public face to the GOP. None of this will be easy. All of this will be necessary.
Mr. Rove is a former senior adviser and deputy chief of staff to President George W. Bush
In politics, good years follow bad years. Republicans and Democrats have experienced both during the past 15 years. A GOP comeback, while certainly possible, won't be self-executing and automatic. It will require Republicans to be skillful at both defense (opposing Mr. Obama on some issues) and offense (creating a compelling agenda that resonates with voters). And it will require leaders to emerge who give the right public face to the GOP. None of this will be easy. All of this will be necessary.
Mr. Rove is a former senior adviser and deputy chief of staff to President George W. Bush
Monday, November 10, 2008
Learning to be the Loyal Opposition
Excellent post by Ed Morrissey at Hotair.com.
If one participates in politics long enough, disappointment is inevitable. Great issues and dangerous times are always present, and elections and their results always matter. By no means do I want to minimize the importance of elections, but the truth is that people make choices with which we don’t always agree, for reasons we don’t usually like. In a democracy, we have to accept that as reality, and transition to other efforts that impact policy decisions until another election comes along.
Sometimes that transition is hard to make. A few people never made that transition after the 2000 election, for instance. It takes more than a few hours, or a few days. But eventually, if we value democracy, we have to accept the legitimacy of those elections we lose. Without that commitment, we can’t support democracy at all.
We now have to adjust to the fact that Republicans no longer control any of the elective parts of the federal government. We’re now the opposition party in the House, Senate, and the White House simultaneously for the same time since the 1994 elections. How we handle that role will help determine how long we have to remain in the wilderness, and how long it will take to rebuild our credibility.
I strongly reccomend a click-through to read the whole post here.
If one participates in politics long enough, disappointment is inevitable. Great issues and dangerous times are always present, and elections and their results always matter. By no means do I want to minimize the importance of elections, but the truth is that people make choices with which we don’t always agree, for reasons we don’t usually like. In a democracy, we have to accept that as reality, and transition to other efforts that impact policy decisions until another election comes along.
Sometimes that transition is hard to make. A few people never made that transition after the 2000 election, for instance. It takes more than a few hours, or a few days. But eventually, if we value democracy, we have to accept the legitimacy of those elections we lose. Without that commitment, we can’t support democracy at all.
We now have to adjust to the fact that Republicans no longer control any of the elective parts of the federal government. We’re now the opposition party in the House, Senate, and the White House simultaneously for the same time since the 1994 elections. How we handle that role will help determine how long we have to remain in the wilderness, and how long it will take to rebuild our credibility.
I strongly reccomend a click-through to read the whole post here.
Saturday, November 8, 2008
Note to Boston Globe: Massachusetts Republicans defiant, not depressed
Boston Globe article; GOP battles blues after election reduces ranks in Legislature
And the reply from Aaron Margolis of Hub Politics(quoted in the piece);
Note to Boston Globe: I’m Not Depressed
by Aaron Margolis, November 6th, 2008 at 02:35pm
Last night I took a phone call from a member of the Boston Globe staff who was writing an article about post-election gloom amongst Massachusetts Republicans. Normally, I dislike these kinds of phone call interviews, but it’s hard to pass up sometimes.
The call was directly referring to my pre-election day post, specifically about my thoughts on Beacon Hill:
Beacon Hill is nearly 90% democrats. This is absurd. The reason why your vote on Question 1 is meaningless is because of the state legislature has shown time and time again your vote is bupkis–totally meaningless. The “party of choice” takes that choice away from you. You vote for change, and they take it away. Party of the people? Not quite. It’s only natural that we disapprove of the whole government body, but like our particular elected official…but people, please, look at the record of your elected officials. If they are not on your side, don’t give them the privilege of your vote. The only way to reign them in is to bring something resembling balance to Beacon Hill, and yes, that means electing some Republicans.
Right off the bat, I’m asked “so are you feeling a bit depressed right now?”
Why should I be depressed? I’m not walking around with my head down all ashamed of my political beliefs. Yes, we lost a few more seats on Beacon Hill, but does that change anything for Republicans in this state? No. I replied, “I’m not depressed; I’m disappointed, but not depressed.” We chatted for a few minutes. I elaborated a bit on my thoughts about the imbalance of power on Beacon Hill, and that was that.
Much to my surprise, I read the article on boston.com and find out that not only am I “depressed” but I apparently spoke on behalf of “other Republicans.”
Aaron Margolis, co-editor in chief of the conservative political blog hubpolitics.com, called the imbalance “absurd.”
“It’s frustrating when there’s that imbalance of power because one party is constantly being reinforced and [can become] power hungry,” he said. “Me and other Republicans feel disenfranchised and a little depressed about the whole situation.”
This is why I hate phone interviews. I did say that Republicans are no doubt feeling disenfranchised, but depressed? No. Whether the state legislature is 90% Democrat, or 100%, the voice of Republican Party (and the citizens of the Commonwealth, for that matter) is still ignored the same. Adding insult to injury, the paraphrasing of my words left little to be desired. Friends who know me best that have read the article agree that the last sentence doesn’t even sound like me. ‘Me and other Republicans’? No, no, no. First of all, it’s poor English. Second, I don’t speak on behalf of other Republicans; they can speak for themselves.
I was also asked if I would move out of Massachusetts. For the past six years, I knew I would not be able to move out (even if I wanted to) because I’ve been working towards earning my masters degree. But now, with two months left before I graduate, I can’t imagine moving out of Massachusetts just because of the dwindling number of Republicans in the State House. While reasons could come up that might tempt or require me to move, the last reason would be because Massachusetts is getting bluer. The difference between Democrats and Republicans is that Democrats wonder what is wrong with the country when their party loses (and then threaten to move to Canada), while Republicans ask themselves what they did wrong and regroup to try to win next time. I am not going to retreat in defeat because of a lost battle. That is not what Republicans do. You can’t bury your head in the sand if you want change.
It seems likely this particular Boston Globe staff member had an agenda to get me to say I was “depressed” about the situation on Beacon Hill, but I was not biting. Nonetheless, words got put into my mouth. I guess we live and learn.
I’ll state for the record that I am not depressed–I am just extremely disappointed in what is happening to the Commonwealth. In the end we get the government we deserve, and we have no one to blame but ourselves.
Aaron Margolis
And the reply from Aaron Margolis of Hub Politics(quoted in the piece);
Note to Boston Globe: I’m Not Depressed
by Aaron Margolis, November 6th, 2008 at 02:35pm
Last night I took a phone call from a member of the Boston Globe staff who was writing an article about post-election gloom amongst Massachusetts Republicans. Normally, I dislike these kinds of phone call interviews, but it’s hard to pass up sometimes.
The call was directly referring to my pre-election day post, specifically about my thoughts on Beacon Hill:
Beacon Hill is nearly 90% democrats. This is absurd. The reason why your vote on Question 1 is meaningless is because of the state legislature has shown time and time again your vote is bupkis–totally meaningless. The “party of choice” takes that choice away from you. You vote for change, and they take it away. Party of the people? Not quite. It’s only natural that we disapprove of the whole government body, but like our particular elected official…but people, please, look at the record of your elected officials. If they are not on your side, don’t give them the privilege of your vote. The only way to reign them in is to bring something resembling balance to Beacon Hill, and yes, that means electing some Republicans.
Right off the bat, I’m asked “so are you feeling a bit depressed right now?”
Why should I be depressed? I’m not walking around with my head down all ashamed of my political beliefs. Yes, we lost a few more seats on Beacon Hill, but does that change anything for Republicans in this state? No. I replied, “I’m not depressed; I’m disappointed, but not depressed.” We chatted for a few minutes. I elaborated a bit on my thoughts about the imbalance of power on Beacon Hill, and that was that.
Much to my surprise, I read the article on boston.com and find out that not only am I “depressed” but I apparently spoke on behalf of “other Republicans.”
Aaron Margolis, co-editor in chief of the conservative political blog hubpolitics.com, called the imbalance “absurd.”
“It’s frustrating when there’s that imbalance of power because one party is constantly being reinforced and [can become] power hungry,” he said. “Me and other Republicans feel disenfranchised and a little depressed about the whole situation.”
This is why I hate phone interviews. I did say that Republicans are no doubt feeling disenfranchised, but depressed? No. Whether the state legislature is 90% Democrat, or 100%, the voice of Republican Party (and the citizens of the Commonwealth, for that matter) is still ignored the same. Adding insult to injury, the paraphrasing of my words left little to be desired. Friends who know me best that have read the article agree that the last sentence doesn’t even sound like me. ‘Me and other Republicans’? No, no, no. First of all, it’s poor English. Second, I don’t speak on behalf of other Republicans; they can speak for themselves.
I was also asked if I would move out of Massachusetts. For the past six years, I knew I would not be able to move out (even if I wanted to) because I’ve been working towards earning my masters degree. But now, with two months left before I graduate, I can’t imagine moving out of Massachusetts just because of the dwindling number of Republicans in the State House. While reasons could come up that might tempt or require me to move, the last reason would be because Massachusetts is getting bluer. The difference between Democrats and Republicans is that Democrats wonder what is wrong with the country when their party loses (and then threaten to move to Canada), while Republicans ask themselves what they did wrong and regroup to try to win next time. I am not going to retreat in defeat because of a lost battle. That is not what Republicans do. You can’t bury your head in the sand if you want change.
It seems likely this particular Boston Globe staff member had an agenda to get me to say I was “depressed” about the situation on Beacon Hill, but I was not biting. Nonetheless, words got put into my mouth. I guess we live and learn.
I’ll state for the record that I am not depressed–I am just extremely disappointed in what is happening to the Commonwealth. In the end we get the government we deserve, and we have no one to blame but ourselves.
Aaron Margolis
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
McCain gives concession speech
Phoenix, Arizona - Sen. John McCain conceded what he called "an historic election" to rival Barack Obama late Tuesday night.
McCain congratulated Obama "on being elected president of the country we both love."
"I recognize the special significance it has for African-Americans and for the special pride that must be theirs tonight," McCain said. "We both recognize we've come a long way from the old injustices that once stained our nation's reputation."
"Let there be no reason now for any American to fail to cherish their citizenship in this, the greatest nation on earth," he added.
McCain acknowledged a personal tragedy for Obama, who lost his grandmother the day before the election.
"Obama has achieved a great thing for himself and his country. I applaud him for it and offer my sincere sympathy that his grandmother did not live to see this day."
As for the road ahead, McCain said, "These are difficult times for our country. I pledge to him tonight to do all that is in my power to help him lead us in the many challenges we will face. I urge all Americans who supported me to join me in not just congratulating him but offering our next president our good will and earnest effort to find ways to come together."
"Whatever our differences, we're fellow Americans. Please believe me when I say no association has ever meant more to me than that."
He encouraged his supporters to stay positive. "It is natural tonight to feel some disappointment but tomorrow we must move beyond it and get our country moving again. We fought as hard as we could and though we fell short the failure is mine, not yours."
"I am so deeply grateful for all of you for the great honor of your support and for all you've done for me."
Monday, November 3, 2008
Where Do I Vote in Massachusetts 2008 Presidential Election?
By Pam Gaulin, published Nov 03, 2008
Halloween is over and Massachusetts voters are planning their voting day. Plan ahead and check your polling place, know the polling place hours, and don't forget to bring your identification. For more information on finding out where to vote in Massachusetts, when to vote in Massachusetts, checking voting registration status, Massachusetts ballot questions, and where to file a complaint, read on.
The Voter Hotline may be reached at 1-800-462-VOTE (1-800-462-8683)2008 Massachusetts
Voter Checklist
The Secretary of State has included a 2008 Massachusetts Voter Checklist in its Voter guide.Here is the HTML copy of the ballot that you can print out and fill in to make your voting easier and quicker at the polls. The official Massachusetts Guide for Voters in PDF format may be printed from here: Sec.state.ma.us/ele/elepdf/IFV_2008.pdf.
When to Vote in Massachusetts for the 2008 ElectionThe Massachusetts polls are open from 7:00 a.m. on Tuesday, November 4, 2008 until 8:00 p.m. on Tuesday, November 4, 2008.
Voting Day Tips
Try to vote early in the day, when the polls open. The best time to vote is between 7:00 a.m. and 3:00 p.m.Do not panic if you get in line close to or at 8:00 p.m. As long as you are in line by 8:00 p.m. you have the right to vote. The polling places do not close at 8:00 p.m. but you cannot line up at after 8:00 p.m.
Use your lunch break to vote, if you work near your polling place.Carpool with neighbors or friends to help alleviate election day traffic and parking overloads.Be cautious while driving through dense neighborhoods, since children are not in school today.Parents are allowed to take children into the voting booth, so do not let lack of a baby sitter keep you from the polls today.
Review Massachusetts Ballot Questions for the 2008 ElectionThere are three ballot questions in 2008. Review them and read up on them before you head into the voting booth. This will save everyone time and frustration at the polls, and help keep the process moving efficiently for all Massachusetts voters.
Halloween is over and Massachusetts voters are planning their voting day. Plan ahead and check your polling place, know the polling place hours, and don't forget to bring your identification. For more information on finding out where to vote in Massachusetts, when to vote in Massachusetts, checking voting registration status, Massachusetts ballot questions, and where to file a complaint, read on.
The Voter Hotline may be reached at 1-800-462-VOTE (1-800-462-8683)2008 Massachusetts
Voter Checklist
The Secretary of State has included a 2008 Massachusetts Voter Checklist in its Voter guide.Here is the HTML copy of the ballot that you can print out and fill in to make your voting easier and quicker at the polls. The official Massachusetts Guide for Voters in PDF format may be printed from here: Sec.state.ma.us/ele/elepdf/IFV_2008.pdf.
When to Vote in Massachusetts for the 2008 ElectionThe Massachusetts polls are open from 7:00 a.m. on Tuesday, November 4, 2008 until 8:00 p.m. on Tuesday, November 4, 2008.
Voting Day Tips
Try to vote early in the day, when the polls open. The best time to vote is between 7:00 a.m. and 3:00 p.m.Do not panic if you get in line close to or at 8:00 p.m. As long as you are in line by 8:00 p.m. you have the right to vote. The polling places do not close at 8:00 p.m. but you cannot line up at after 8:00 p.m.
Use your lunch break to vote, if you work near your polling place.Carpool with neighbors or friends to help alleviate election day traffic and parking overloads.Be cautious while driving through dense neighborhoods, since children are not in school today.Parents are allowed to take children into the voting booth, so do not let lack of a baby sitter keep you from the polls today.
Review Massachusetts Ballot Questions for the 2008 ElectionThere are three ballot questions in 2008. Review them and read up on them before you head into the voting booth. This will save everyone time and frustration at the polls, and help keep the process moving efficiently for all Massachusetts voters.
Republicans optimistic about election
By Charlie Breitrose/Daily News staff
MetroWest Daily News
Posted Nov 03, 2008 @ 12:53 AM
While the Republican Party appears to struggle nationally, the GOP in the Bay State, particularly in Boston's western suburbs, seems to have a better forecast heading into tomorrow's election.
According to a survey by Commonwealth Unbound from MassINC, only 17 percent of the races for legislative seats - 28 total - had candidates from both major parties. In the MetroWest and Milford areas, however, there are six contested races - four in the House and two in the Senate.
Republican and former Gov. Paul Cellucci said the down economic times and large state deficit may convince voters to give Republicans a chance.
``The fact is we have a deficit at state level, and there doesn't appear to be any plan from the Democrats to get things back in order,'' Cellucci said. ``Those who want to maintain fiscal discipline, I think that is a good argument for the Republican candidates.''
Cellucci has been knocking on doors asking people to support GOP hopeful and fellow Hudsonian Sonny Parente in the race for the 3rd Middlesex House District. He also held a fundraiser for Arthur Vigeant, the Marlborough City Council president seeking the House seat in the 4th Middlesex District.
``I'm cautiously optimistic. My hope is these candidates can win, and the Republican Party can make a comeback,'' Cellucci said. ``I think a two-party Legislature is much better for Massachusetts. One party in control leads to big problems. We saw that in the late '80s.''
MetroWest Daily News
Posted Nov 03, 2008 @ 12:53 AM
While the Republican Party appears to struggle nationally, the GOP in the Bay State, particularly in Boston's western suburbs, seems to have a better forecast heading into tomorrow's election.
According to a survey by Commonwealth Unbound from MassINC, only 17 percent of the races for legislative seats - 28 total - had candidates from both major parties. In the MetroWest and Milford areas, however, there are six contested races - four in the House and two in the Senate.
Republican and former Gov. Paul Cellucci said the down economic times and large state deficit may convince voters to give Republicans a chance.
``The fact is we have a deficit at state level, and there doesn't appear to be any plan from the Democrats to get things back in order,'' Cellucci said. ``Those who want to maintain fiscal discipline, I think that is a good argument for the Republican candidates.''
Cellucci has been knocking on doors asking people to support GOP hopeful and fellow Hudsonian Sonny Parente in the race for the 3rd Middlesex House District. He also held a fundraiser for Arthur Vigeant, the Marlborough City Council president seeking the House seat in the 4th Middlesex District.
``I'm cautiously optimistic. My hope is these candidates can win, and the Republican Party can make a comeback,'' Cellucci said. ``I think a two-party Legislature is much better for Massachusetts. One party in control leads to big problems. We saw that in the late '80s.''
Memo from McCain campaign regarding Exit Polls
McCAIN CAMPAIGN MEMO: READING THE EXIT POLLS
BILL McINTURFF, INTERNAL POLLSTER
Mon Nov 03 2008 16:53:14 ET
As we have seen in previous election cycles, the exit poll results do leak early and that ends up influencing the coverage of the race before even the first state polls close at 6:00 PM Eastern.
However, we want to remind the campaign that the media’s own post-election study of the exit polls in 2004 showed that the exit polls overstate the Democratic candidate’s support. Therefore, we would discourage a rush to judgment based on the exit polls and wait until there has been a representative sampling of actual tabulated results from a variety of counties and precincts in a state.
Here are the key points to keep in mind when the exit poll data starts being leaked:
1. Historically, exit polls have tended to overstate the Democratic vote.
2. The exit polls are likely to overstate the Obama vote because Obama voters are more likely to participate in the exit poll.
3. The exit polls have tended to skew most Democratic in years where there is high turnout and high vote interest like in 1992 and 2004.
4. It is not just the national exit poll that skews Democratic, but each of the state exit polls also suffers from the same Democratic leanings.
5. The results of the exit polls are also influenced by the demographics of the voters who conduct the exit polls.
After the 2004 election, the National Election Pool completed a study investigating why the exit polls that year showed John Kerry over performing 5.5 net points better than the actual results showed him to have done. Their conclusion was that the primary reason the exit polls was that Kerry voters and Democrats were more likely to participate in the exit polls.
“Our investigation of the differences between the exit poll estimates and the actual vote count point to one primary reason: in a number of precincts a higher than average Within Precinct Error most likely due to Kerry voters participating in the exit polls at a higher rate than Bush voters. There has been partisan overstatements in previous elections, more often overstating the Democrat, but occasionally overstating the Republican.
We believe that this will hold true this year. The recent Fox News survey showed that 46% of Obama voters said they were very likely to participate in the exit polls, while just 35% of McCain supporters are.
In fact, even the 2004 exit poll report noted that higher turnout nationally and higher levels of voter interest in both 1992 and 2004 correlated with greater Within Precinct Error.
The overstating of the Democratic vote did not only occur in the national exit polls, but also occurred in the state exit polls. The 2004 exit poll report cited that the Kerry vote was overstated by more than one standard error in 26 states, while the Bush vote was overstated in just four states. So we should also expect the individual state exit polls on Tuesday to be more Democratic as well.
So given that turnout is expected to be even higher than 2004 and that Democrats are more likely to participate in the exit polls, this means we should expect greater fluctuation and variation in the exit polls from the actual election results.
The 2004 exit poll report also showed that the greatest error in the exit poll came in precincts where the interviewer was younger. The completion rates were lower and the refusal rates and Within Precinct Error was higher when the interviewers were under the age of 35.[6] Complicating this is that nearly half the interviewers were under the age of 35, including 35% who were 18-24 and another 15% were 25-34.
Conclusions
Based on the previous exit poll results, we should expect once again that Tuesday’s exit poll data could overstate the Obama vote and under represent the McCain vote.
It is important that the campaign make sure the media realizes this, so that when the exit polls do leak, people do not overreact to the early exit poll data. Rather than looking at the exit polls, we should wait until we start seeing actual election results from key precincts and counties to gauge who won the election.
BILL McINTURFF, INTERNAL POLLSTER
Mon Nov 03 2008 16:53:14 ET
As we have seen in previous election cycles, the exit poll results do leak early and that ends up influencing the coverage of the race before even the first state polls close at 6:00 PM Eastern.
However, we want to remind the campaign that the media’s own post-election study of the exit polls in 2004 showed that the exit polls overstate the Democratic candidate’s support. Therefore, we would discourage a rush to judgment based on the exit polls and wait until there has been a representative sampling of actual tabulated results from a variety of counties and precincts in a state.
Here are the key points to keep in mind when the exit poll data starts being leaked:
1. Historically, exit polls have tended to overstate the Democratic vote.
2. The exit polls are likely to overstate the Obama vote because Obama voters are more likely to participate in the exit poll.
3. The exit polls have tended to skew most Democratic in years where there is high turnout and high vote interest like in 1992 and 2004.
4. It is not just the national exit poll that skews Democratic, but each of the state exit polls also suffers from the same Democratic leanings.
5. The results of the exit polls are also influenced by the demographics of the voters who conduct the exit polls.
After the 2004 election, the National Election Pool completed a study investigating why the exit polls that year showed John Kerry over performing 5.5 net points better than the actual results showed him to have done. Their conclusion was that the primary reason the exit polls was that Kerry voters and Democrats were more likely to participate in the exit polls.
“Our investigation of the differences between the exit poll estimates and the actual vote count point to one primary reason: in a number of precincts a higher than average Within Precinct Error most likely due to Kerry voters participating in the exit polls at a higher rate than Bush voters. There has been partisan overstatements in previous elections, more often overstating the Democrat, but occasionally overstating the Republican.
We believe that this will hold true this year. The recent Fox News survey showed that 46% of Obama voters said they were very likely to participate in the exit polls, while just 35% of McCain supporters are.
In fact, even the 2004 exit poll report noted that higher turnout nationally and higher levels of voter interest in both 1992 and 2004 correlated with greater Within Precinct Error.
The overstating of the Democratic vote did not only occur in the national exit polls, but also occurred in the state exit polls. The 2004 exit poll report cited that the Kerry vote was overstated by more than one standard error in 26 states, while the Bush vote was overstated in just four states. So we should also expect the individual state exit polls on Tuesday to be more Democratic as well.
So given that turnout is expected to be even higher than 2004 and that Democrats are more likely to participate in the exit polls, this means we should expect greater fluctuation and variation in the exit polls from the actual election results.
The 2004 exit poll report also showed that the greatest error in the exit poll came in precincts where the interviewer was younger. The completion rates were lower and the refusal rates and Within Precinct Error was higher when the interviewers were under the age of 35.[6] Complicating this is that nearly half the interviewers were under the age of 35, including 35% who were 18-24 and another 15% were 25-34.
Conclusions
Based on the previous exit poll results, we should expect once again that Tuesday’s exit poll data could overstate the Obama vote and under represent the McCain vote.
It is important that the campaign make sure the media realizes this, so that when the exit polls do leak, people do not overreact to the early exit poll data. Rather than looking at the exit polls, we should wait until we start seeing actual election results from key precincts and counties to gauge who won the election.
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